The swine flu started off infecting patients in Mexico a couple of months ago after which it quickly spread across Mexico and across its borders eventually reaching an wide international level. The disease killed many people in Mexico; the WHO is reporting, as of May 19th, that there have been 3648 confirmed cases of swine flu and 72 deaths (1.97% death rate). For comparison, the WHO reports that in the United States, there have been 5123 cases and 5 deaths (.098% death rate). Why is this so different? Why has the media jumped all over this? Why have the deaths been so publicized?

First of all, researches determined that the swine flu (the H1N1 strain of influenza – the flu) is less virulent than the typical flu strain. However, the WHO is also reporting that secondary attack rate, which measures how contagious a disease is, is elevated in the H1N1 strain perhaps by almost twice as much. This may contribute to its rapid spread. So, it spread quickly into a mini-pandemic (a disease spreading internationally) and thus caused the immediate panic. Also, the gross differences between the Mexican government’s reporting and the WHO’s reporting of statistics may also contribute to this fear of a “global killer” pandemic of armageddon-type proportions. This is hardly it. The total confirmed cases as of today (May 19th) has been 9830 and 79 confirmed deaths (.8%).

Now, if we take this in comparison to the regular flu statistics in the US from 2007, we show some striking differences that may be alarming. The CDC estimates that between 5%-20% of the population gets the regular flu each year! (15 million to 60 million) Over 200,000 people per year are hospitalized for the flu and on average about 36,000 people per year die. Hundreds of thousands of people in the world each year die from the typical flu virus. These are much, much more significant numbers than what we have been seeing from the swine flu or H1N1 thus far and it is not anticipated that the disease is going to get more dangerous.

So what was the role of the media? Why was this so exaggerated? Its hard to understand. Perhaps it was the actual danger of a dangerous flu pandemic that has happened before in our past (ex. the 1918 swine flu pandemic). Maybe it was the quick spread into the United States. Maybe it was the seemingly high number of cases or the inflated number of cases reported by the Mexican government. Maybe it was the media reporting of people walking around wearing particulate masks on their faces. Maybe the “closure” of Mexico City contributed to it. Who knows. What we do know is that the media coverage of the swine flu has almost disappeared in the last 2-3 weeks as the outbreak seems to be not as dangerous as once thought. And with that, the swine flu lost its appeal to the media.

However, even though the numbers have been extremely exaggerated, there are some important things you should still take away from this. People who are considered at risk for diseases or have compromised immune systems should generally avoid people who display flu-like signs or symptoms. In fact, avoid anyone who displays any signs or symptoms of any disease. Immediately goto the doctor if you being to feel sick. This should not be new information. It is unnecessary to wear a surgical mask; these may not provide any protection at all. As long as you take the basic precautions, there is nothing to worry about.

(http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2009/05/swinefluglimpse/)

www.who.int

www.cdc.gov