What exactly do we know so far? Just over four hours into the flight, the plane began transmitting messages over the ACARS system. The ACARS system was developed to allow planes to transmit quick, simple messages back to the air traffic controllers and other agencies monitoring the flight. There were many messages sent about navigation and the last message received indicated cabin depressurization. There were five failure reports and 19 warning messages sent. These also involved flight control, primary flight control computer system, traffic collision avoidance system, inertial reference unit, independent air data systems, flight management guidance and envelope systems and several others. ADIRU, pitot static backup systems, and ISIS systems may have been affecting contributing to the airspeed indication malfunction that will be mentioned later in the article. I’m not sure exactly what each of these systems do but I think it is pretty evident that there was a massive system failure that led to the demise of the plane and its crew and passengers.

One of the last messages transmitted involved a cabin vertical speed warning which indicated rapid vertical acceleration which could be due to a rapid descent (or ascent, but descent seems more likely).

We also know that there was a large storm system in the area that frequently arises along the path that the plane was taking. The plane’s last reported radar position was within the storm system and its projected path (during the final twelve minutes of the flight) indicated that it went down while still within the storm system. This system was supposed to be severe with hail and extreme turbulence. Many experts believe that the storm system was a contributing factor to the crash based on significant analysis of the weather conditions at the time of the flight (this one is written by a former USAF meterologist). There is evidence to believe that the combination of freezing temperatures, rainfall, hail content, wind, possible electrical activity and other factors could have contributed to damaging the plane or disrupting its electrical and electronic systems.

The plane was passing through the intertropical convergence zone, an area where tropical storms of both the northern and southern hemispheres meet. This area is known for its violent storms. Furthermore, 30 minutes after the automated messages were sent, Jorge Amaral, a commercial airline pilot flying for the TAM airlines, noticed that there were “orange dots” in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean – a clear sign indicating the possibility of a crash. Air Comet Flight 974 pilot (in Portuguese) noticed “something flashing brightly over the ocean then taking a descending vertical trajectory.”

There has been some debris recovered from the area but nothing that has been useful in the recovery and lacking the most important items to be recovered – the “black box” also known as the data and voice recorder which records basically all the action of the plane’s computer systems and the electrical systems and the pilots’ communications and cockpit action. However, there have been reports it may be at a depth of 10,000 ft to 20,000 ft. At this depth is immense pressure requiring submarines to retrieve it. Recovering this item is of dire importance because it will provide huge insight into what exactly happened. Also, as of June 8th, 17 bodies have been recovered from the flight.

One of the significant controversies over the crash is about the airspeed indicatory devices and its reported malfunction. A French spokesmen from their air investigation board said that there has been a problem with the A330 (the type of plane flight 447 was) and its airspeed indicator systems. Apparently this is a widespread problem with several other A330 flights and it was not repaired during the last overhaul of the A330 on Flight 447. If the plane was traveling too slowly, the plane could easily have stalled or been affected by the severe turbulence. If it was traveling too fast, the plane could have broken up in midair. The airspeed malfunction could definitely have been a significant problem that contributed to the crash.

The bottom line is that we don’t know yet what happened to Flight 447. Hopefully in the upcoming weeks the black box can be recovered and lead to more data that will help resolve the issue and prevent more terrible crashes in the future.

Further Resources:

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,524538,00.html

Wikipedia has a decent article with citations